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Does free agency or the draft hold the 49ers’ wide receiver of the future?



49ers Wide Receiver Draft Free Agency
© Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers are in the market for a wide receiver this offseason. Should the 49ers use free agency or the draft to land their wide receiver of the future?


Now that the San Francisco 49ers have their quarterback of the future in Jimmy Garoppolo, general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely pivot to finding their wide receiver of the future — either via free agency, the 2018 NFL draft, or both.

The advantage of obtaining talent in free agency lies in the information gleaned over a player’s four years in the league; you’re signing a known quantity — but for this, you pay a heavy price. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry translated his 400 catches and 4000 yards into an approximately $16 million franchise tender in 2018, although questions remain regarding who the slot receiver will play for next season. Fellow 2014 draftee Allen Robinson — if he avoids the franchise tag — will surely garner top dollar on the open market.

Even if Robinson is franchised, there will be other viable options in free agency, because the 2014 NFL Draft was the year of the wide receiver. In 2014, five receivers were drafted in the first round, and seven more were selected in the second, and all but one — Cody Latimer — are considered hits to varying degrees. Productive first-rounders like Odell Beckham and Mike Evans will be locked up this season via their fifth-year options, but others like Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews will likely hit the market.

Since the 2014 receiver class was so immediately productive, NFL teams predictably overreacted in 2015, drafting six wide receivers in the first round of the draft. The bust rate in 2015 was considerably higher in the early rounds, led by first-rounders Kevin White and Breshad Perriman, who have combined for 64 total catches in their three years in the league.

General managers have slowly come to their senses, drafting four first-round receivers in 2016, and then three in 2017, but although these young receivers still have room to grow, few early-round picks have lived up to their draft position. That’s not to say that there haven’t been wide receiver hits in the draft, and with undrafted free agents — but the top of the draft wasn’t as fruitful as teams expected.

Take the Minnesota Vikings, who drafted wide receiver Laquon Treadwell in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft, just three years after trading up into the first round to select receiver and return-specialist Cordarrelle Patterson. In 2017, the Vikings had a deep playoff run, partially thanks to the play of their two top receivers — neither of which were their two former first-round picks. Patterson watched the 2017 playoffs from home as an Oakland Raider, after being relegated to mostly special-teams duties. Treadwell — who is still searching for that elusive first touchdown — played third-fiddle in Minnesota to undrafted free agent Adam Thielen and fifth-rounder Stefon Diggs.

Although this year’s wide-receiver draft class isn’t the strongest, there is likely a top-tier receiver — and a number of consistent starters — to be found, and they won’t all be first-day selections. So, how can we tell which college receivers are most likely to excel at the next level? We have next month’s NFL Combine, which will open a window into a prospect’s measurables, but we can also analyze both the film and the statistics from each receiver’s college career.

Next, we’ll take a look at which college stats are indicators of wide receiver success in the NFL, and how the 2018 NFL Draft prospects — specifically those linked to the San Francisco 49ers – measure up.

Chris Wilson is the Lead Writer for Locked on 49ers, a FanRag Sports network partner. You may have seen Chris’ work on NFL game theory, statistical analysis and film breakdowns at FanSided, NinerNoise, 49erswebzone, Insidethe49 and others. Follow Chris on Twitter @cgawilson.

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San Francisco 49ers

49ers: Assessing San Francisco’s free agent losses in 2018

Jon Chik



Inevitably, NFL squads and their fans are bound to suffer some gut-punches in the form of productive (and sometimes beloved) players departing via free agency. The San Francisco 49ers, however, seem to have enjoyed a mostly painless free agency period, and we’re taking a look at the newly ex-Niners and assessing what their departure means to the organization and their former teammates.

Carlos Hyde

Seasons with San Francisco: 4

New team: Browns

New contract: Three years, $15.25 million ($8 million guaranteed)

The skinny: By far the most prominent player that departed this season, Hyde was a steady contributor for four seasons with San Francisco. Beginning as Frank Gore’s understudy in 2014, the former Ohio State standout produced 333 yards and four scores on 83 carries while occasionally spelling Gore before becoming the starter the following season.

That’s the role he enjoyed ever since, and while Hyde occasionally flashed potential to join the top tier of NFL running backs, maintaining that level of play proved quite challenging and staying on the field was never a sure thing, as he suited up 50 out of 64 possible games.

Hyde definitely had his moments, but it’s fair to say San Francisco was expecting more from a second-round draft pick, and Pro Football Focus wasn’t kind to him this past season. The four-year vet earned an overall mark of 51.9, putting him as the No. 50 of 58 qualified backs and dead last as both a receiver and pass blocker.

The 235-pounder lacks elite quickness, struggles in all facets of the passing game and is hardly the ideal running back in a Kyle Shanahan system, which requires speed and versatility. Hyde’s fate was likely sealed as soon as Shanahan was hired, as the Niners were never going commit to him the way the Browns did since he simply didn’t fit the scheme.

Despite having very little competition for carries over the past three seasons, Hyde never reached the 1,000-yard plateau and has hit the century mark just four times in his career.

Solid running back, but not the kind of free agent you break the bank for.

Who benefits the most: RB Jerick McKinnon – Hyde’s departure left a massive void in the backfield. While Matt Breida impressed last season in his change-of-pace role, the Niners weren’t realistically going to go all-in on a second-year undrafted running back. Instead, San Francisco forked over a four-year, $30 million contract to McKinnon, who is clearly the biggest beneficiary of Hyde’s exit now that he finally can be a feature bank (not to mention his vastly increased bank account). Despite never rushing for more than 570 yards in a season while playing a change-of-pace role in Minnesota, McKinnon became the league’s fourth-highest paid running back when he put the pen to the paper, and his signing was set in motion the moment the Niners decided to move on from Hyde.

G Brandon Fusco

Seasons with San Francisco: 1

New team: Falcons

New contract: Three years, $12.75 million ($5.5 million guaranteed)

The skinny: After spending six seasons in Minnesota, Brandon Fusco made a rather short stay in San Francisco and turned in a solid season, earning a 76.7 grade from PFF, good for a three-way tie as the league’s No. 18 qualified guard out of 79.

While Fusco represents one of the Niners’ biggest free agent losses, San Francisco’s brass likely believed there were more pressing needs during free agency and simply weren’t willing to match Atlanta’s offer, especially since the team still has three former first-round guards under contract.

Who benefits the most: G Josh Garnett – It isn’t too often a first-round pick is in danger of being cut after just two seasons in the league, but it’s become a very real possibility with Garnett, a Chip Kelly-Trent Baalke holdover. On the flip side, Garnett has a chance to open the season as a starter, and Fusco’s departure means the guard position is slightly less crowded, improving Garnett’s chances of cracking the 53.

CB Dontae Johnson

Seasons with San Francisco: 4

New team: Seahawks

New contract: One year, $1.3 million

The skinny: As a fourth-round draft pick in 2014, Johnson flashed just a bit of promise as someone who may provide a nice return. Certainly, he never looked like a superstar in the making, but competent cornerback play was a distinct possibility.

Instead, he quickly hit his (limited) ceiling and saw his play fall of a cliff as the years went by. Last season, Johnson received a 36.9 mark from Pro Football Focus, making him No. 118 cornerback out of 121 qualifiers after he graded out poorly across the board.

Johnson’s excavation from this unit is just one of several ousters orchestrated by San Francisco’s brass, as they’ve completely overhauled the secondary, which now has more potential than any Niner squad in recent seasons.

Who benefits the most: DB Jimmie Ward – While he’s had some underperformance issues himself since going in the first round (No. 30 overall) of the 2014 draft, Ward’s path to playing time gets a bit easier with Johnson out of the picture. Coach Kyle Shanahan talked up Ward’s versatility this offseason and noted that he’ll probably be the top backup at every position in the secondary. For a more detailed look at San Francisco’s controversial decision to retain Jimmie Ward via the fifth-year option from Locked On 49ers, click here.

LB/DE Tank Carradine

Seasons with San Francisco: 5

New team: Raiders

New contract: One year, $1.25 million

The skinny: Carradine amassed only 5.5 sacks in four seasons (44 games) with the red and gold and never became anything close to the disruptive force the Niners thought they were getting when they selected him in the second round (No. 40 overall) in 2013, though he did earn a 78.1 mark from PFF last season. While he didn’t see enough snaps to qualify for the edge defender rankings, that grade would have placed him at No. 47 out of 106 qualifiers.

Carradine at least provided some decent run defense with a mark of 82.6, though his 71.8 pass rush grade left much to be desired. Seeing as how Carradine is now 28 years old, it’s very unlikely San Francisco will experience significant regrets about letting the fringe starter walk in free agency, as he’s now slated for a rotational role with the Raiders.

Who benefits the most: DE Arik Armstead – Armstead, the No. 17 overall pick in 2015 who recently had his fifth-year option picked up by San Francisco, has yet to develop into a monstrous pass-rusher, but more snaps should be heading his way with Carradine out of town. Given that Armstead has only six sacks in three seasons, a new career-high is quite possible for 2018.

DE Aaron Lynch

Seasons with San Francisco: 4

New team: Bears

New contract: One year, $4 million ($1.25 million guaranteed)

The skinny: It’s been a tale of two careers for Lynch: The South Florida product flashed major potential with 12.5 sacks in 30 games in his first two seasons, then followed up with just 2.5 sacks in 14 games over the last two.

He’s not without upside, as PFF gave him a 78.7 mark last season, but the Niners weren’t going to bank on a breakout from the soon-to-be fifth-year player.

Factor in the former fifth-rounder’s conditioning issues and a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and there was virtually no chance he’d be brought back to San Francisco.

Who benefits the most: DE Jerry Attaochu – Attaochu, who came over as a free agent from San Diego this offseason, isn’t so different from Lynch. Both are entering their fifth season, each has flashed semi-enticing pass-rush skills, both have posted six-plus sacks in at least one campaign and been hampered by injuries. Perhaps Attaochu can do what Lynch has been unable to over the past two years and buoy the Niners’ pass rush.

TE Logan Paulsen

Seasons with San Francisco: 1

New team: Falcons

New contract: One year, $1.005 million

The skinny: As San Francisco’s third tight end a season ago, Paulsen rarely took the field and didn’t record a reception while backing up George Kittle and Garrett Celek.

Paulsen only saw 144 snaps last season, so his 50.3 PFF grade can be taken with a grain of salt, but it didn’t make sense for the Niners to retain the well-traveled veteran when they’ve got three younger in-house candidates with more upside.

Who benefits the most: TE Cole Hikutini/TE Ross Dwelley/TE Cole Wick: Locked On 49ers’ Chris Wilson recently broke down San Francisco’s tight ends, and while Kittle and Celek are near locks to crack the 53, Hikutini, Dwelley and Wick all have a better chance of snagging the No. 3 tight end role now that Paulsen has departed.

CB Leon Hall

Seasons with San Francisco: 1

New team: Raiders

New contract: One year, $915k

The skinny: Hall spent one season in red and gold and now moves on to his fourth team in as many seasons. The 33-year-old didn’t fare well in a part-time role last year, and he became expendable after several young defensive backs performed admirably last season.

It only made sense that the Niners would let him walk and continue his journeyman career elsewhere.

Who benefits the most: CB Tarvarius Moore — With San Francisco boasting a young and improving secondary, Hall wouldn’t have been assured a roster spot even if he’d stuck around, but now that he’s gone, San Francisco’s intriguing third-round draft pick could be ticketed for a more prominent role, even if he’ll perhaps start the season behind Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, K’Waun Williams and Jimmie Ward.

*Note: San Francisco’s free agents that have not signed elsewhere are not included in this article.

Don’t miss Locked On 49ers’ article on San Francisco’s incoming free agents.

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San Francisco 49ers

Training Camp Preview: Offensive Line

Brian Peacock



© Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Podcast for Thursday, July 19

-Joe Staley is still elite
-4 of 5 starters are set
-Jonathan Cooper and Joshua Garnett will battle for RG
-LeVeon Bell will play under franchise tag, is he a fit for SF in 2019?

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San Francisco 49ers

49ers: Assessing San Francisco’s free agent additions for 2018

Jon Chik



Whether bringing in a blockbuster signing or an under-the-radar pickup, the San Francisco 49ers were busy during free agency season and courted players of all shapes and sizes to bolster the red and gold in 2018.

We’re taking a look at everyone who put the pen to the paper during free agency to join the Niners’ family.

CB Richard Sherman

Former team: Seahawks

Age: 30

Experience: 8th season

Contract signed with 49ers: Three years, $39 million ($3 million guaranteed)

The skinny: How could we start anywhere else? Niner Faithful’s former public enemy No. 1 turned prized free agent pickup didn’t even need to start practicing to make an impact, as multiple reports from red-and-gold camp indicated that the veteran cornerback was all over the gridiron coaching up San Francisco’s young defensive backs.

What to expect: With Sherman now 30 years old and coming off an Achilles injury that ended his season during Week 10 last year, there are bound to be some question marks regarding Sherman’s ability to remain one of the NFL’s elite corners.

Still, Sherman was at the top of his game when he was healthy in 2017, earning praise from Pro Football Focus, which gushed over San Francisco’s signing of the outspoken antagonist. If there’s been any regression whatsoever, it’s barely noticeable, and a reinvigorated and healthy Sherman is just the man to anchor San Francisco’s fast-rising secondary and provide the defense with some swag.

Who benefits the most: CB Ahkello Witherspoon – After he was relegated to a healthy scratch for the first four games of last season due to a poor training camp, Witherspoon bounced back in a major way and quickly established himself as the 49ers’ unquestioned top cornerback down the stretch, but asking the Colorado product to produce like an All-Pro and become a fiery leader in just his second season may have been a tall order. Sherman’s got that covered for days, and Witherspoon can continue to learn from the best.

RB Jerick McKinnon

Former team: Vikings

Age: 26

Experience: 5th season

Contract signed with 49ers: Four years, $30 million ($12 million guaranteed)

The skinny: Simply put, Jerick McKinnon is a Kyle Shanahan guy. And it’s easy to see why: The Georgia Southern product is dangerous in space, has blinding speed, can bounce runs to the outside, possesses excellent receiving skills and can stand up to hard-charging linebackers in pass protection.

Comparisons to Devonta Freeman, whom Shanahan spent time with in Atlanta when the Falcons went to the Super Bowl, were running wild even before the ink dried on McKinnon’s new contract.

What to expect: Though some questioned the Niners when they made the relatively unproven McKinnon the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL, it will be money well spent if he gets anywhere near Freeman’s level of production, and even while splitting time in Minnesota’s committee last season, Jet was Pro Football Focus’ eighth-ranked running back with a mark of 84.5.

The man he replaces, Carlos Hyde, came in at No. 50 out of 58 qualified backs with a 51.9 grade.

If they weren’t keen on making McKinnon a featured part of the offense and weren’t completely sold on his ability to rapidly ascend to a dangerous top-tier player, the Niners wouldn’t have broken the bank for Jet the way they did. Twenty-five-plus touches per game is a distinct possibility.

Who benefits the most: QB Jimmy Garoppolo – When Jimmy G led San Francisco to five victories in his only five starts of the season, he did so while standing next to Carlos Hyde, who graded out as the worst pass-blocking running back in the NFL out of 46 qualifiers (McKinnon ranked 11th).

While McKinnon can hold his own against hard-charging defenders in pass protection, he’s even more equipped to haul in receptions, and the elusive speedster will be a serious threat to do damage every time he hauls in a pass from the new franchise quarterback.

C Weston Richburg

Former team: Giants

Age: 27

Experience: 5th season

Contract signed with 49ers: Five years, $47.5 million ($16.5 million guaranteed)

The skinny: With four new starters across five positions on the offensive line since the start of last season, the 49ers have completely overhauled the unit, and Weston Richburg is your literal and figurative centerpiece. The 6’4”, 300-pound Colorado product played his first four seasons with the Giants after going in the second round (43rd overall) of the 2014 draft and graded out as Pro Football Focus No. 2 center with a phenomenal season in 2015.

What to expect: Over four years in the league, Richburg has established himself as one of the top young interior linemen in pro football. Richburg never quite replicated his outstanding sophomore season, but he’s arguably the standard-bearer for centers when it comes to pass-blocking, which is even more important when you’ve got a relatively inexperienced quarterback signed to a $137.5 million contract.

There is some injury concern, as he missed the final 12 games of last season with a concussion, though Richburg himself disagreed with the decision and had appeared in 47 of a possible 48 games the previous three seasons combined.

Richburg will be counted on to keep Jimmy G upright, and that shouldn’t be a problem for PFF’s No. 14-ranked free agent of 2018, as he’s permitted just four sacks on 2,112 pass-blocking snaps, a truly mind-blowing stat.

Though Richburg only played four games last season, he earned a 71.3 mark from Pro Football Focus, which would have been good enough to rank him as the league’s No. 13 center if he’d suited up enough times to qualify. Daniel Kilgore, the man he’s replacing, was No. 23 with a grade of 51.6.

Who benefits the most: The correct answer is “everyone,” but if we must narrow it down to one player, we’ll again go with Jimmy Garoppolo – Having the chance to step into your throws and drive the ball downfield is imperative in today’s NFL, and with Richburg acting as a brick wall in front of him, Garoppolo will get the chance to do exactly that on nearly every pass he throws this season.

G Jonathan Cooper

Former team: Cowboys

Age: 28

Experience: 6th season

Contract signed with 49ers: One year, $4.5 million ($4 million guaranteed)

The skinny: We’ve already provided a comprehensive breakdown on the curious case of Cooper and his fellow first-round offensive guard teammates in San Francisco, Laken Tomlinson and Josh Garnett. Now for the quick version.

To be blunt, Cooper is a career underachiever since being drafted No. 7 overall by the Cardinals in 2013, though it’s not all his fault. Much of Cooper’s ineffectiveness can be chalked up to a plethora of injuries.

What to expect: On the bright side, Cooper appeared in a career-high 13 games with the Cowboys last season and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ No. 35 guard out of 79 qualifiers with a mark of 67.0 (he was also No. 29 in run blocking).

Cooper has come to the right place, as he’ll have every chance to earn a starting gig a right guard, an opportunity that he may not have been afforded on some other teams.

He’ll face competition from the aforementioned Garnett (San Francisco’s first-round selection in 2016 who has similarly battled injuries and ineffectiveness) and veteran journeyman and free agent pickup Mike Person (more on him in a moment). Early indications suggest Cooper may have the edge on both.

Who benefits the most: OG Josh Garnett – If we’ve heard it once, we’ve heard it a million times: Competition makes everyone better. With a strong training camp and preseason, either Cooper or 24-year-old Garnett could earn the right to line up between Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey at right guard for the first snap of the 2018 campaign, but both also face the very real possibility of being cut before we even get there, especially if the injury bug bites once again.

DE/LB Jeremiah Attaochu

Former team: Chargers

Age: 25

Experience: 5th season

Contract signed with 49ers: One year, $3 million

The skinny: One of San Francisco’s chief concerns heading into the offseason was finding someone via the draft or free agency that could consistently put some heat on the quarterback. Unfortunately for the red and gold, the lack of a bona fide speed rusher is still something of an issue heading into the upcoming season, but perhaps Attaochu has a chance to cure what ails the defense.

What to expect: Playing time was sparse for the Georgia Tech product in San Diego, though he showed encouraging signs as a situational pass-rusher in 2015 when he produced a career-high six sacks in 15 games.

Sadly, ankle, foot and hamstring injuries derailed his momentum, as he appeared in just eight games in 2016 and only four last year, so Niner fans will have to keep their fingers crossed that he can remain on the field before wishing for highly productive play.

Signed only for only one season at such a low cost, he’s a fine flier for John Lynch and company.

Who benefits the most: DT DeForest Buckner – Arguably San Francisco’s best defensive player, DeFo notched three sacks last season while racking up a league-leading 19 quarterback hits. If Attaochu can generate even a moderate amount of pressure and attract just a bit of attention from opposing offensive lines, it could be enough for Buckner to turn even more of those quarterback hits into sacks.

G/C Mike Person

Former team: Colts

Age: 30

Experience: 8th season

Contract with 49ers: One year, $915k

The skinny: The former seventh-round draft pick of the 49ers makes his way back to the bay after stops in Indianapolis, Seattle, St. Louis, Atlanta, Kansas City and a second stint with the Colts. He’s also been released/waived six times, but he’s worked hard to stay in the league as a versatile backup that can play all three positions on the interior line.

What to expect: Since he only started four games last season and only took the field for 317 snaps, Person didn’t qualify for PFF’s center rankings, but he still received a decent 70.5 mark and proved rock-solid in pass protection with a grade of 77.2.

Like Josh Garnett and Jonathan Cooper, Person will be gunning for the starting job at right guard, and this may be the best chance the well-traveled Person has ever had to crack the starting lineup and stick there.

Who benefits the most: G Josh Garnett and G Jonathan Cooper – Every training camp session and preseason snap counts, as all three guards duke it out for the right to line up between Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey for Week 1.

LB Korey Toomer

Former team: Chargers

Age: 29

Experience: 5th season

Contract with 49ers: One year, $880k

The skinny: Something of an under-the-radar signing by San Francisco, Toomer has a few factors working in his favor: Familiarity with Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh’s scheme after playing in a similar system last year in San Diego, a nose for the football (he’s forced five fumbles and broken up five passes in the last two seasons combined in limited snaps), and he’s coming off a strong season that saw him earn an 80.3 grade from PFF.

What to expect: While Toomer’s 257 defensive snaps weren’t enough to qualify him to be officially ranked, the Idaho product showed well when he was on the gridiron, as his grade would have placed him as the No. 23 linebacker in the NFL.

There could be some sneaky untapped potential waiting to be unlocked if Toomer can earn playing time with a strong training camp and preseason, and he’ll likely get his shot in the campaign’s first two games while Reuben Foster is suspended. Once again, it’s a savvy low-risk, high-reward signing.

Who benefits the most: LB Reuben Foster – Toomer is likely to see a surplus of snaps during Foster’s suspension. While he poses no threat to Foster’s job security, the veteran could play a critical mentor role for San Francisco’s maligned second-year playmaker, both on and off the field.

P Jeff Locke

Former team: Lions

Age: 28

Experience: 5th season

Contract with 49ers: One year, $790k

The skinny: Jeff Locke spent his first four seasons in Minnesota before failing to make the Colts last season and eventually latching on with the Lions for five games prior to being cut when the team’s starting punter returned from injury. Locke, who was drafted in the fifth round by the Vikings in 2013, has averaged 43.4 yards per punt since entering the league and has put 112 of his punts inside the 20 in five seasons.

What to expect: Teams only carry one punter, and Locke will have to dramatically outperform incumbent Bradley Pinion, who has averaged 43.7 yards per punt and has pinned the opposition inside the 20 on 90 occasions in three seasons with San Francisco since being selected in 2015 as a fifth-rounder just like Locke.

Who will benefit the most: P Bradley Pinion – A good old-fashioned training camp battle never hurt anybody (not even punters), and San Francisco’s fourth-year man will have to continue to perform to hold off the newcomer.

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